Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
